Sunday, September 21, 2008

Economy Issue

Is it possible to execute Mark Cuban's suggestion in soundbites that will penetrate the media enough to get through to the voters? He does point out something obvious. Any detailed economic plan presented today will probably be totally outdated in January. Guests on MTP this morning suggested it's time for the candidates to link themselves to economic experts. Mr Warren Buffet and NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg were mentioned. I'd look at dragging a Vanguard alumnus with decent speaking skill out of retirement. Vanguard group has a prudent, workmanlike financial philosophy and still retain their solid reputation. From what I gather, they've been among the grownups while the teenagers have gleefully clogged the financial system with bad debt.

We're printing money to finance at least some of these bailouts. Isn't the U.S. devaluing it's currency by doing this? As these new dollars work their way in to the economy they will make the dollar buy less. The part I don't know is how much money got printed compared to how much is out there and what inflationary impact that will/should cause. Anyone seen reputable reporting on this angle anywhere? If so, can you shoot me a link?

While I'm talking about the media, has anyone out there seen *any* coverage on the fact that low end rents are going up because low end rental supply is going down? You see, banks don't rent out properties after gaining ownership of them with the high bid on court house steps after a foreclosure. The cause of the real estate crisis comes down to a disconnection of short term incentives and long term risk. If you have cash to invest there are some outstanding bargains out there on real things like real estate. Now's the time. You'll take that defaulted loan off of some banks books and get that unit back in to circulation. Unemployment, while not great, is still in reasonable shape. I believe there are opportunities to be had in this environment. There are opportunities in any market, especially in turbulent markets.

Government is now attempting to mitigate a huge financial set-back in the midst of presidential election crunch time. No doubt we'll dig out of all this bad debt eventually but it's going to take years, not months. Since the problem was caused by the insane unlinking of profits and consequences, perhaps the presidential candidates could talk about how we can all work to shelter our own neighborhoods by investing one rental and/or flip at a time. Since credit is at a stand still perhaps it's time for individual investors to offer land contracts to buyers who would normally get a loan for a house. Local banks, credit unions and savings and loans with assets could be having a field day by selling reliable mortgages in this market while the big banks are too chicken. I'd wager that the folks offering land contract or mortgages these days might bother to ensure that there's a good chance that they'll get their money back before making the deal.

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